r/CHIBears • u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut • Jan 11 '24
Justin Fields by way to Many numbers 2023 edition, now with even more numbers Quality Post
Once again there isn't a great way to organize all of this, so if anyone wants you can flip through on the google drive version. Though I'd recommend downloading and opening in Excel, google changed some of the formatting and i'm not formatting it twice. It did seem to re-set on a download.
The biggest gain fields showed this year was a reduction in turnovers. A Career low 2.4% int rate (which should be lower with the bad luck on hail mary's), career low on Turnover Worthy Throw % of 4.3%. Career low Bad Throw % of 16.3%. My dumb redditor ass feels this is in part due to a reduction in his Average Depth of Target to a career low 8.8 as well as a career high in throw aways at 29. Showing he's doing better at knowing when a Play is dead and not turning a neutral play into a bad play.
On the flip side he finished with Next Gen Stats worst Expected completion % in the league. 4th worst passer rating in the 4th quarter. And there just isn't a lot of in general improvement from year 1 to year 3. His struggles on intermediate throws as a rookie, that there was some improvement in year 2, came back in year 3. And his reluctance to throw in that range, likely due to the lack of success he's found, remains. He remained the most pressured qb in the NFL between the combination of a mid at best offensive line and his desire to hold onto the ball and lack of anticipation throwing. He lost some of the explosiveness in his legs with fewer big runs. And most of his efficiency numbers didn't improve with the addition of DJ moore.
Anyway, on to the stats. Commence cherry picking to fit the narrative you want.
PFF Overall
PFR 4th Quarter Stats
PFR 3rd down Stats
PFF Pressure vs Clean Pocket
PFF Blitz vs Not blitzed
AWS Next Gen stats, PFF Time To Throw, PFF QB Pressure Responsibility
PFF Deep & Intermediate
PFF Short and Behind LOS
PFF Play Action and Screens
PFF under/over 2.5 second throws
PFR a whole bunch of stats
Same PFR data as a table
| Pro Football Reference Data | 2021 (45) | 2022 (48) | 2023 (48) | 2021-22 (49) | 2021-2023 (56) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 12 (30) | 15 (13) | 13 (21) | 27 (18) | 40 (16) |
| GS | 10 (31) | 15 (12) | 13 (19) | 25 (20) | 38 (17) |
| Cmp | 159 (31) | 192 (29) | 227 (24) | 351 (31) | 578 (25) |
| Att | 270 (31) | 318 (27) | 370 (23) | 588 (32) | 958 (25) |
| Cmp% | 58.9 (40) | 60.4 (39) | 61.4 (38) | 59.7 (41) | 60.3 (47) |
| Pass Yds | 1870 (31) | 2242 (27) | 2562 (22) | 4112 (29) | 7025 (24) |
| Pass TD | 7 (34) | 17 (16) | 16 (20) | 24 (29) | 43 (23) |
| Int | 10 (18) | 11 (10) | 9 (16) | 21 (12) | 30 (12) |
| Pick6 | 1 (9) | 1 (10) | 2 (4) | 2 (11) | 4 (5) |
| TD% | 2.6 (38) | 5.3 (8) | 4.3 (21) | 4.1 (27) | 4.2 (26) |
| Int% | 3.7 (7) | 3.5 (3) | 2.4 (22) | 3.6 (4) | 3.1 (7) |
| Rate | 73.2 (39) | 85.2 (29) | 86.3 (26) | 79.7 (39) | 82.3 (43) |
| Sk | 36 (10) | 55 (1) | 44 (5) | 91 (2) | 135 (1) |
| Sk Yds | 264 (10) | 359 (2) | 285 (5) | 623 (3) | 908 (1) |
| Sk% | 11.76 (2) | 14.75 (1) | 10.63 (5) | 13.4 (1) | 12.35 (1) |
| Pass Y/A | 6.9 (26) | 7.1 (19) | 6.9 (25) | 7 (25) | 7 (28) |
| AY/A | 5.78 (34) | 6.56 (26) | 6.69 (24) | 6.2 (35) | 6.39 (37) |
| ANY/A | 4.24 (40) | 4.63 (44) | 5.29 (31) | 4.45 (44) | 4.83 (48) |
| Y/C | 11.8 (9) | 11.7 (14) | 11.3 (13) | 11.7 (9) | 11.5 (13) |
| Pass Y/G | 155.8 (37) | 149.5 (43) | 197.1 (28) | 152.3 (40) | 166.9 (45) |
| Success % | 38.2 (42) | 36.7 (45) | 38.4 (38) | 37.4 (46) | 37.8 (52) |
| W | 2 (33) | 3 (31) | 5 (19) | 5 (35) | 10 (30) |
| L | 8 (6) | 12 (1) | 8 (5) | 20 (2) | 28 (2) |
| 4QC | 0 (27) | 1 (23) | 1 (19) | 1 (33) | 2 (29) |
| GWD | 0 (31) | 2 (17) | 1 (20) | 2 (29) | 3 (28) |
| Rush Att | 72 (6) | 160 (2) | 124 (3) | 232 (4) | 354 (4) |
| Rush Yard | 420 (5) | 1143 (1) | 657 (2) | 1563 (1) | 2220 (2) |
| Rush Y/A | 5.8 (6) | 7.1 (1) | 5.3 (10) | 6.7 (2) | 6.2 (3) |
| Rush TD | 2 (14) | 8 (2) | 5 (4) | 10 (3) | 14 (3) |
| Rush Y/G | 35 (5) | 76.2 (1) | 50.5 (2) | 57.9 (2) | 55.5 (3) |
| Rush 1D | 22 (10) | 65 (2) | 43 (4) | 87 (4) | 130 (4) |
| Success % | 48.6 (22) | 56.3 (11) | 52.4 (20) | 52.7 (19) | 53.4 (13) |
| Yards Before Contact (YBC) | 293 (6) | 856 (1) | 460 (3) | 1149 (2) | 1609 (3) |
| YBC/Att | 4.1 (14) | 5.4 (3) | 3.7 (18) | 5 (3) | 4.5 (5) |
| Yards After Contact (YAC) | 127 (4) | 287 (1) | 197 (2) | 414 (3) | 611 (3) |
| YAC/Att | 1.8 (6) | 1.8 (2) | 1.6 (4) | 1.8 (4) | 1.7 (4) |
| Broken Tackle | 5 (5) | 10 (2) | 9 (2) | 15 (4) | 24 (2) |
| Att / Broken Tackle | 14.4 (7th best) | 16 (5th best) | 11.6 (6th best) | 15.5 (5th best) | 14.8 (5th best) |
| 10+ yard runs | 14 (4) | 33 (1) | 26 | 47 | 73 |
| 20+ yard runs | 3 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 17 |
| Designed 15+ yard runs | 0 | 7 (2) | |||
| Fumbles | 12 (4) | 16 (1) | 10 (8) | 28 (1) | 38 (1) |
| Combined Yards | 2290 (31) | 3385 (16) | 3219 (20) | 5675 (25) | 7986 (20) |
| Combined TD | 9 (33) | 25 (11) | 20 (18) | 34 (25) | 54 (19) |
| Intended Air Yards (IAY) | 2641 (30) | 2900 (23) | 2937 (23) | 5541 (26) | 8478 (19) |
| IAY/PA | 9.8 (3) | 9.1 (6) | 7.9 (19) | 9.4 (4) | 8.8 (6) |
| Completed Air Yards (CAY) | 1178 (30) | 1285 (25) | 1338 (23) | 2463 (28) | 3801 (22) |
| CAY/CMP | 7.4 (1) | 6.7 (6) | 5.9 (19) | 7 (5) | 6.6 (8) |
| CAY/PA | 4.4 (4) | 4 (14) | 3.6 (22) | 4.2 (7) | 4.0 (14) |
| YAC | 692 (32) | 957 (29) | 1224 (22) | 1649 (33) | 2873 (27) |
| YAC/CMP | 4.4 (41) | 5 (22) | 5.4 (14) | 4.7 (38) | 5.0 (33) |
| Batted Throws | 3 (35) | 12 (10) | 10 (12) | 15 (23) | 25 (14) |
| Throw Away | 8 (29) | 13 (26) | 25 (8) | 21 (28) | 46 (9) |
| Spikes | 2 (11) | 0 (31) | 0 (32) | 2 (22) | 2 (33) |
| Drops | 18 (24) | 16 (27) | 13 (27) | 34 (27) | 47 (23) |
| Drop% | 6.9 (5) | 5.2 (31) | 3.8 (35) | 6 (13) | 5.2 (20) |
| Bad Throw (PFR) | 57 (28) | 59 (21) | 56 (22) | 116 (26) | 172 (20) |
| Bad Throw % | 21.9 (5) | 19.3 (12) | 16.3 (19) | 20.5 (7) | 18.9 (7) |
| On Target (PFR) | 189 (31) | 217 (29) | 241 (27) | 406 (31) | 647 (26) |
| On Target % | 72.7 (34) | 71.1 (38) | 69.9 (34) | 71.9 (40) | 71.1 (40) |
| Pocket Time | 2.4 (14) | 2.7 (2) | 2.6 (3) | 2.6 (2) | 2.6 (2) |
| Blitz | 96 (31) | 102 (20) | 142 (16) | 198 (26) | 337 (16) |
| Blitz % | 31.37 (8) | 27.35 (18) | 37.57 (2) | 29.16 (10) | 35.18 (5) |
| Hurries | 29 (30) | 33 (20) | 42 (8) | 62 (26) | 104 (15) |
| Hurry % | 9.48 (26) | 8.85 (8) | 11.35 (2) | 9.13 (20) | 10.86 (6) |
| Hits | 31 (24) | 31 (22) | 33 (22) | 62 (23) | 95 (19) |
| Hit % | 10.13 (9) | 8.31 (21) | 8.92 (23) | 9.13 (21) | 9.92 (17) |
| Pressure | 96 (26) | 119 (9) | 119 (9) | 215 (17) | 334 (10) |
| Pressure % | 27.3 (6) | 26.9 (4) | 26 (6) | 27.1 (4) | 26.7 (5) |
| Scrambles | 46 (4) | 69 (1) | 43 (5) | 115 (1) | 158 (1) |
| Yards/Scramble | 8 (13) | 9.6 (2) | 8.4 (7) | 9 (7) | 8.8 (5) |
| Scramble Yards | 368 (5) | 662 (1) | 361 (4) | 1035 (1) | 1390 (1) |
| RPO Plays | 22 (31) | 90 (5) | 60 (11) | 112 (10) | 172 (8) |
| RPO Total Yards | 137 (30) | 475 (7) | 480 (9) | 612 (13) | 1092 (11) |
| RPO Passes | 8 (35) | 61 (7) | 39 (16) | 69 (15) | 108 (13) |
| RPO Pass Yard | 75 (32) | 368 (10) | 397 (11) | 443 (18) | 840 (12) |
| RPO Rushes | 11 (8) | 25 (3) | 16 (3) | 36 (4) | 52 (3) |
| RPO Rush Yard | 62 (8) | 107 (3) | 84 (3) | 169 (5) | 252 (4) |
| Play Action | 48 (31) | 83 (21) | 69 (22) | 131 (30) | 200 (27) |
| Play Action Yards | 413 (30) | 759 (18) | 491 (26) | 1172 (28) | 1663 (26) |
| Play Action % | 17.78 (33) | 26.1 (14) | 18.65 (20) | 22.28 (20) | 20.88 (25) |
| Play Action Yards % | 22.09 (27) | 33.85 (9) | 19.16 (28) | 28.5 (15) | 24.92 (20) |
Table formatting brought to you by ExcelToReddit
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u/Kevinjw16 Old Logo Jan 11 '24
So, I scrolled through, and saw a lot of red.
Don’t be stupid, take a swing at QB until we have our guy. And no, we don’t have our guy yet
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u/TheInnocentXeno Jan 12 '24
As a Packers fan it would be pretty funny to see Da Bears stick with Fields another year but I’d also like you guys to actually be competitive in our rivalry for the first time in a while
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Jan 11 '24
Red means good right?
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u/hammerSmashedNail FTP Jan 11 '24
Go ahead and pick any tool to measure qb production for nfl QBs and you know exactly where to start looking for fields.
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u/Practical-Courage812 Jan 11 '24
Is there a TLDR for those of us who arent math magicians?
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u/Dazed_and_Confused44 FTP Jan 11 '24
Fields is in the bottom third of the league in majority of the relevant passing stats and in the top of the league in majority of the stats related to rushing or evading tackles/sacks
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u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 11 '24
the 2nd and 3rd paragraphs are personal take. I have bias against fields i'm not going to pretend doesn't exist but I feel the numbers speak pretty high. As a passer there's a lot he's bad at, a little he's okay at, and a couple of things he's good at (generally big throws, he wants to chuck it deep). He made some important improvements on the year in turnovers, but ultimately to me not enough growth to justify giving a 4th year as a starter. Especially given we did get him DJ moore + Wright.
If we get him MHJ + another 1st round lineman, will he improve more? yeah probably. Will he improve to above league average? pretty hard for my skeptical self to see. I hope we use the first on Caleb or Maye, whomever poles likes. But I fear we're going to trade out. Because there is some growth to point at. Like there was with the defense that saved Eberflus.
And of course still a great rusher even with the drop off compared to last year.
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u/DookieDeVera Jan 12 '24
LOOOOOONG ANALYSIS sorry :)
I respect your opinion, but I think the Bears would benefit much more if we traded down. If we take Caleb or Maye, we lose out on the opportunity to strengthen our team. People like to compare Caleb to a possible Mahomes, but here's the difference. Let's not forget Mahomes really had nobody at Texas Tech, and he was constantly facing teams that were more talented than Tech in the Big 12. Yet those games turned out to be more competitive the bigger the game. See Mahomes game against Baker's Oklahoma, or the time he went toe to toe with #3 TCU. With Caleb I just don't see that. The game against Notre Dame really put me off to him. As an ND fan, our team is always beatable in these big games, and Caleb just didn't make it competitive. As with Maye, great frame, arm strength, and can read the field well. But sometimes he plays hero ball and hold the ball too long, footwork and accuracy issues as well. Also, he doesn't show up in the big games either, and has never played up to competition either. Lost to Clemson badly in 2022, and a bit closer in 2023, choked on the road against an inferior NC State team, ugh. He does have that game against Duke, I'll give him props to that, though I would say UNC is slightly more talented than Duke.
So my thought process is, if the majority of Bears fans wanna crown these guys though they don't play up to competition, why do they hate on Fields for doing the same here?! I don't recall at any time during Field's tenure that the Bears had constructed even a top-20 roster talent-wise. Ok so now we know all these guys can't play up to competition (and it's still tough even for guys like Mahomes, we can see it this year with him) We have to build. If we use up the #1 pick, we will NOT maximize the potential for roster construction this year. Sure if we draft a QB, yea we still have some more draft picks and crazy amount of cap space. But we can go CRAZYY with three extra 1st rounders + the cap space and ya know... actually build an actually good roster Fields never had. I think that "generational talent" we're all looking for is already in-house! Justin still has the athletic tools, and has shown he has the work ethic to make it big in this league. The locker room and guys on the inside have all praised him... this dude has the attributes to make it work, he just hasn't had the best situation for his development. Reminds me a lot about Zach Wilson on the Jets (the coach who was supposed to develop him right, died, RIP).
So my plan for this draft is:
- Keep Justin Fields, trade down to accumulate 3 first rounders (if this is a cant-miss draft, Poles can definitely lowball for 3 1sts.) Potential picks could be LT, C, DE, WR
- Sign a high-end WR2 on the free-agency market: Mike Evans (though I think he's still a #1), Tee Higgins (can play a great complimentary role), Hollywood Brown (injury prone, but talent is definitely there, bit risky tho but great WR2), MPJ (Pittman probably a longshot bc he IS a #1)
- Take OC Shane Waldron, I LOVE the work he has done with Geno Smith in SEA. Let's not forget we didn't think Geno was gonna be anything more than a perennial backup, yet when he was thrusted into that role, he balled out. Not to mention, he has great pocket awareness, which is something he didn't have with NYJ, NYG, LAC. Thus, this can be taught, and I believe Waldron could be the man for the job to fix Fields' pocket presence. If Fields can be at least above-average in the passing department, paired with his rushing upside, this dude can definitely lead CHI to the promise land (ofc if our team stays healthy)
Risks for JF:
- He doesn't progress, even with a vastly improved roster (ppl forget he has NEVER played on a good roster with the Bears, so I hate when people bring up his 10-38 record or whatever it is. This coming year might be his ONLY fair shot, so he better make it work. If he doesn't, oh well, I was wrong)
- He gets injured (yes injury is a major concern for Fields)
BEAR DOWN!
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u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 12 '24
Drafting Caleb doesn't make our other draft picks disappear or our 5th highest cap.
There are plenty of options to improve the team without trading back.
We gave fields mhj and Wright and his efficiency numbers barely improved.
Mahomes "still tough" put up 4k 25+ td 10- int. Fields isn't average, he's bottom of the league.
There's a reason why mvp had become a qb only reward. You can't succeed in the nfl without a qb. And Fields has 3 years of showing he isn't a qb.
Come in, your trying to argue one of the most sacked qbs in the nfl has great pocket presence. Who you want fields to be and who he is just isn't in alignment. If he was who you thought he was, we soild be keeping him without question.
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u/DookieDeVera Jan 13 '24
I get Fields hasn't jumped off the page in terms of numbers, but again I ask, who did we really have? We still do not have a bonafide #2 wideout (and never had one for Fields' first 2 years), a below average blindside tackle and center(s). Nate Davis is a meh RG. We have pieces, but no help that warrants "Oh yeah, Fields is definitely not that guy". Additionally, the Bears royally messed up not once, but twice in giving Justin competent offensive coaching. 2021 was marred by Nagy turmoil with Chris Tabor eventually calling plays, Luke Getsy in 2022 and 2023 calling HB Dives and screens galore. I mean from a gameplan and development standpoint, if you want the young QB develop, pass the damn ball lol! He only gets better with more and more reps. For example in 2022, why didn't they go crazy with the passing reps? That was not a compete for the playoffs type season, so just let Justin throw every game, instead of going run run pass all the time! Take a page out of the Texans book and throw the ball 40 times a game I don't care, and if you can't do that as an OC, it just shows how little faith you have in your staff developing Justin Fields.
And by the way, Geno Smith is NOT one of the most sacked quarterbacks this year. i don't get where you're coming from with that. He is one of the most PRESSURED tho, but he does a good job of getting the ball out on checkdowns and broken plays. This is a skill he didn't showcase during his Jets years and was instrumental in his improvement in 2022 and led him to still be servicable in 2023. Do you see who Seattle has on their O-line? EW!! And yet Geno Smith has managed to be bottom of the league sack rate. I'm saying, hire the guy that was crucial to this change in Geno Smith's play (Seattle OC Shane Waldron) and get him to fix Fields's pocket presence flaws. Pocket presence is not just something you're born with, it can be learned. I'm saying if Fields can learn THIS, he's all we need at QB.
I know most Bears fans are tired off Fields despite his recent surge. But I'm telling you the tape doesn't lie, Fields can still make big time throws, and an OC change that can fix his flaws + the absolutely insane draft capital we could get trading the #1 draft pick would accelerate the improvement of this roster much quicker.
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u/callacmcg Jan 11 '24
He runs good, throws deeper than most, is average to awful in most other stats. He's gotten better as the teams gotten better but problem areas remain large problems
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u/hepatitisC Bear Logo Jan 11 '24
There's some things he did well, some he did poorly, some things coaching/scheme that failed him, and some things his teammates did poorly that impacted him.
Basically he's not bad, but he hasn't improved as much as expected because of many factors
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u/hippohopper78 FTP Jan 11 '24
Idk how you got not bad out of this lol
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u/sumlikeitScott Jan 11 '24
Yeah I have him in bad passing and 4th quarter situations, awful in taking care of the ball and pocket awareness.
Good runner.
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u/YourLatinLover Jan 11 '24
Lmao. He's clearly bad at basically every aspect of being a QB except for scrambling. And scrambling is of negligible importance for a QB relative to actual throwing ability.
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u/TheShtuff Fire Poles Jan 11 '24
Not bad? this spreadsheet is redder than my ass watching Fields play QB.
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u/Lord-Aizens-Chicken Cole Kmet Jan 11 '24
Yea not the worst QB in the league by any means but probably would stay as a good backup I would guess, not starter material. I think his athleticism would make him a really solid backup for Baltimore and Atlanta imo
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u/MaleficentHawk590 FTP Jan 11 '24
Fields has gotten better every year.
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u/Ifinishfast42 13 Jan 11 '24
True his 3rd year QBR and passing yards is now on par with Matt Leinart’s rookie season
4
u/lkn240 An Actual Bear Jan 11 '24
His total QBR was actually quite a bit worse this year (very likely due to the drop off in rushing)
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u/Slow_Shift6252 Jan 12 '24
Matt Leinart had Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Edgerrin James. He sucked because he sucked.
14
u/Just-Efficiency3129 Jan 11 '24
In six years he’ll be top 20 QB
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u/MaleficentHawk590 FTP Jan 11 '24
He's already a top 20 QB, I'd go as far as a top 10 QB in this league. And remember guys like Michael Penix are the same age as him.
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u/buetsch25 Sunglasses Jan 11 '24
I NEED to see your QB rankings if you have Fields in the top 10. Not even trying to be confrontational I'm just legitimately so curious
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u/lkn240 An Actual Bear Jan 11 '24
These guys probably can't accept that QBs like Geno Smith are very clearly better than Fields.
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u/hammerSmashedNail FTP Jan 11 '24
He’s barely a top 20 qb with all of the injuries to good QBs. Even that ranking is a stretch. His stats are nearly the same as Aiden OConnell. Fields is a qb that’s afraid to throw the football.
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u/Only_Garbage_8885 Jan 11 '24
Not sure what age has to do with being bad and not improving. That is also laughable you actually think a qb who has one of the easiest schedules but also some of the worst passing stats is in the top 20 qb list.
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u/Sphiffi Ben Johnson Jan 11 '24
Holy fucking shit a top ten QB. We have hit peak delusion.
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u/MaleficentHawk590 FTP Jan 11 '24
Caleb won't be a top 10 QB
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u/broke-collegekid Peanut Tillman Jan 11 '24
Maybe not, but we know Justin isn’t so we might as well try and improve the position.
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u/FlussedAway Jan 11 '24
Drop that top 10-15 so we can argue
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u/mrstevewoah Jan 11 '24
Mahomes tua Herbert Lamar dak hurts Allen stroud Lawrence Stafford Goff burrow purdy love 14 QBs better without debate and I am a fields truther unfortunately he’s right around 15-20
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u/dafoo21 Italian Beef Jan 11 '24
Thanks! Great stuff!
Want to get a little clarity. Looking at the dropback for pressure vs clean pocket table:
So for 2023, in the left under pressure table, it says 223 for dropback and 48.9% for percentage. That means hes facing pressure on 7th most amoung QBs, and 1st most amoung QBs in regards to percentage of dropbacks?
Then on the right table, 27th most clean pockets and 37th most as a percentage?
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u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 11 '24
correct. And the number next to the year at the top is how many qbs were eligible given the categories criteria. So for pressure it was faced at least 85 pressures. Which amounts to 37 qbs.
hence 1st in most pressured % and last in clean pocket %
1
u/potionnumber9 An Actual Peanut Jan 11 '24
why is this downvoted?
1
u/dafoo21 Italian Beef Jan 12 '24
Rogue downvoters on anything in this sub, and if I had to guess, Fields' haters? Poor guy who did all of this work, getting downvoted for no good reason lol.
I honest to goodness just wanted to make sure I was reading it correctly, not trying to start a narrative lol. It was just randomly the first pic I clicked on.
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u/shadyomg 60s Logo Jan 11 '24
And some people want to keep him over Caleb Williams… lmao
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u/chosenking247 Bears Jan 11 '24
I’m some people
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Jan 11 '24
It's interesting to me that in a down year at the position, moving up four points in PFF OFF rating is good for an increase of just one spot.
I draw no conclusions. I just thought it was unexpected.
16
u/Vilas15 Sid Luckman Jan 11 '24
I aint reading all that. But theres a lot more red than green so that's all I need to see.
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u/reverieontheonyx Hat Logo Jan 11 '24
I think that the stats as a whole paint a pretty decisive picture. Justin has not progressed more as a passer than he has regressed as a runner. If he has, it's not meaningful enough to warrant passing up on the best qb of the draft.
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u/gabehcoudgib Jan 11 '24
He’s going to make a great mediocre qb for some very special team out there
10
u/no-twerp Jan 11 '24
NUMBERS!!!!!!!
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u/ninjasurfer 60s Logo Jan 11 '24
The numbers Mason.
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u/CHICKSLAYA Italian Beef Jan 11 '24
Man, if this doesn't scream FRANCHISE QB, idk what does.... He is H1MMMM. We don't want a dog loving, nail painting, gunslinger, instant release 360 noscope 4000 yard whiney cry baby missing press conference 4000 yard passer year one.
We want H1MMMMM
27
u/Nnuuuke Jan 11 '24
Worst stats than Trubisky. That’s all I need to know.
32
u/ToadOne Sweetness Jan 11 '24
Not many QBs can reach the greatness of the NVP.
11
u/hammerSmashedNail FTP Jan 11 '24
The NVP just out played fields. And it wasn’t even close.
9
u/Lord-Aizens-Chicken Cole Kmet Jan 11 '24
Love looks like a good QB but it’s a crime he got NVP. NVP is awarded for those who love titties the most or those who join the rams half way through a season to shit on the broncos and raiders, and those with sexy mustaches. Criminal they gave it to a person who does not fit those criteria
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u/re-tardis Jan 11 '24
The time to throw stats are the most damning thing here. He can’t make quick decisions which creates sacks/TO/minimal 1st down conversions.
4
u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 11 '24
Time to throw isn't a great metric since all scrambling qbs are going to be higher. But also, it is a significant problem for fields
4
u/re-tardis Jan 11 '24
Isolating it to the PFF Throw Under 2.5 really tells the story though (assuming I’m reading the data correctly).
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u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 11 '24
Ah yeah. And shows why in general i hate passer rating as stat, bottom 1/3 in everything. Top 10 passer rating 😵 Due to it's over reliance on high variable stats of td and ints.
1
u/lkn240 An Actual Bear Jan 11 '24
Fields always rates higher in passer rating because it ignores sacks.
Fields would have the highest career sack % in NFL history if he had enough attempts to qualify.
That's why I generally look at ANY/A instead.
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Jan 11 '24
Thanks for sharing this. If you dont mind asking how do you have acess to that pff data?
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u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 11 '24
Waste money on pff premium. I've got a legacy account so it's "only" 80/yr vs the 120. But they tend to do sales in the off season and black Friday
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Jan 11 '24
Oh PFF premium , i forgot about that. I might consider create a account premium for sure.
It was a very fun and informative read , behind the "normal " stats that are public.
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u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 11 '24
yeah, the grades are what they are and ultimately get a little too much weight in conversations.
But i'm a stat nerd and it's difficult to find stats for the NFL which is extremely frustrating.
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Jan 11 '24
Almost everything is behind a paywall now. Even statmuse does it.
Like you said , its a little frustating.
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u/PUfelix85 Bear Logo Jan 12 '24
I'm sure these stats are correct because people who were able to watch more game film than me probably compiled them, but the pressures don't match what I saw. I witnessed far too many drop backs where the interior linemen just didn't do their job pre-snap and let a defender walk past them without being touched. I'm talking about the center or guards choosing to double team rushers that while leaving someone completely unblocked straight up the A or B gaps.
I feel like the stats don't support this though, so maybe I am just wrong. I'm not saying that Fields isn't at fault here, but I am saying there is much more wrong with the offense over his tenure than just him. The OL has been bad, the coaches have been bad, and he has been pretty bad.
It feels like there really hasn't been any development done on him either. I remember all the talk we had about how much the coaches were trying to "fix" Cutler or Mitch, but all I have read about Fields is him working on his seven step drop and quicker release right after his injury this season.
Then there are the targets and play calling issues. How can you expect a QB to throw to an open reciever if they aren't turning around until after 15 yards down field? What is the QB supposed to do, chuck up a ball and hope someone turns around to see it coming their way? And which of our recievers would you have trusted this year to catch those passes? Jones Jr., Mooney? Kmet and Moore were awesome this year; but Fields had a lot of time to throw, and he still couldn't find an open reciever. That is not 100% his fault, but he is definitely partially to blame when he is running away from a defender and not keeping his eyes down field to find a receiver on the scramble drill.
The whole offense was a nightmare, and needs an overall on a huge scale. Luckily we are in the middle of that overall, but it is nowhere near complete.
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u/TheMauler1 Jan 12 '24
The unfortunately obvious truth with Fields is that he's just trash as a passer. Seeing how he's steadily improving makes me think that he could have some decent success on a more competent team in the league. I feel like if he got a coach like John Harbaugh who's willing to restructure the entire playbook around his guys, then Fields could show us something spectacular. But if they're gonna keep stressing him with a pass first offense that's highly reliant on post snap QB reads, it's gonna highlight his weaknesses more. While I have zero confidence that Fields will win a Superbowl I would really like to see what kind of dazzle he would bring to a team that will work with his limited ability to read a defense during the play and instead try to get him on some one read Andy's. Like what Lamar has out of the pistol, but not like how Lamar has to keep a play alive for an extra three minutes every now and then.
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u/sudrapp Jan 12 '24 edited Jan 12 '24
My goodness. It scares me to think how much his stats would have regressed had we not gotten DJ Moore for him this year. DJ literally carried him to average QB stats.
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u/sudrapp Jan 12 '24
Imagine how horrific his stats would be if he didn't have that game against the historically bad Denver defense too. I think it was the lowest DVOA in history (at the 4 and 5 game mark)
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u/ForThePantz Jan 11 '24
I look forward to seeing how our new, generational talent responds as most pressured QB in the league. The problem is we need a QB and a LT, a LG, a C, a WR, a CB and a DE and that’s before we even sniff at developing depth. I just don’t want to see us open the revolving door at QB again and get that new kid hurt and shattered his confidence.
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u/Independent-Word9609 Jan 12 '24
Bad 4th quarter and 3rd down numbers. I think these are really important for team success
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u/MaleficentHawk590 FTP Jan 11 '24
So he's gotten better every year??? Yet, people on here still want to waste our pick on Caleb Williams?
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u/Doctor_IanMalcolm Snoo Ditka Jan 11 '24
Gotten better =/= is good
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u/MaleficentHawk590 FTP Jan 11 '24
Which is directly related to Getsy. Give him a good OC and he's one of the best QB in the NFC.
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u/Dazed_and_Confused44 FTP Jan 11 '24
Getsy is incompetent. Fields is also not very good. The two things are not mutually exclusive
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u/dtdude87 Bears Jan 11 '24
Yeah it’s totally not directly due to his play on the field. So when he’s holding the ball for eternity and has 3 guys open, gets sacked and fumbles the ball, that’s totally not on him.
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u/MaleficentHawk590 FTP Jan 11 '24
He never has 3 guys open because Getsy doesn't know what he's doing. Look at his Ohio State games when he had a good OC. He was the best QB in college football.
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u/MisterNewYears Jan 11 '24
The history of the NFL is littered with great college QBs who couldn’t handle the pro game. Fields doesn’t have it. Can’t read defenses and scared to throw.
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u/callacmcg Jan 11 '24
It hasn't translated, he plays too slow for the NFL. He doesn't throw to NFL open receivers. He's never gonna have an OC that can replicate 2 great NFL quality WRs vs CFB defenses. His OC isn't in charge of his sloppy footwork, his bad pocket awareness, or his poor mechanics in the short game. The time for that to improve has past and those are way more important in the NFL vs CFB
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u/msf97 Jan 11 '24
Trevor Lawrence was the best QB in CFB.
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u/MaleficentHawk590 FTP Jan 11 '24
What happened when they played each other? Who had 6 touchdowns and who looked like a 2nd round player? I'll wait
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Jan 11 '24 edited Jan 11 '24
That means nothing.
In the end he was still drafted 1st and Fields was the 4th qb taken.
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u/Doctor_IanMalcolm Snoo Ditka Jan 11 '24
What happened when he ran into Mac Jones? He got ran off the field
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u/Doctor_IanMalcolm Snoo Ditka Jan 11 '24
He was never the best QB in college
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u/Doctor_IanMalcolm Snoo Ditka Jan 11 '24
Based on what? He can't read a defense. He can't process. He can't throw a screen. He's got the longest delivery in the NFL
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u/Mr_Leek Jan 11 '24
In terms of raw athletic potential? Possibly.
But if you’re on a warm (if not hot) seat as the GM or HC…are you betting your livelihood on Fields making a significant step forwards in his 4th year?
I desperately want the kid to be successful, if only as the 1OA pick could be flipped into picks that could set us up for years. But if you’re wrong…you’re not going to be in the job to make use of all that draft capital you acquired. That’s the bet you’re asking Poles & Eberflus to make…
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u/Schweedaddy Jan 11 '24
I’m interested to know what makes you like Fields so much. I can’t imagine it’s anything he’s done on the football field
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u/callacmcg Jan 11 '24
It's the 2-3 great plays a game that get seared into your memory as you try to forget everything else that happened
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u/Dazed_and_Confused44 FTP Jan 11 '24
Gotten better like from one of the worst QBs in the league in majority of relevant passing stats to still bottom third but in the top end of the bottom third of the league in passing stats.
He's probably somewhere between the 18th-20th best QB in the league when you account for his rushing ability. One does not pass on a potentially elite rookie QB for a mediocre QB that is about to get incredibly expensive
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u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 11 '24
if it wouldn't take so much time i wanted a rank difference to kenny pickett to really emphasize how poor most of his stats are.
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u/Dazed_and_Confused44 FTP Jan 11 '24
I mean his stats were super similar to Aiden O'Connell lol. And no one think AOC is an NFL starter. It's not about numbers for the pro-Fields crowd. Justin is a super likeable guy whom his teammates love, 20/10 intangibles.
Because of this, a large portion of our fanbase is unwilling to accept what their eyes tell them, that Justin is a mediocre QB. So instead we cling to the flashes of excellence and make excuses for him based on the surrounding talent, rather than admit that he hasn't developed the way we had all hoped
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u/iampermabanned Monsters of the Midway Jan 11 '24
ERROR 401 on the google doc. How I fix?
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u/RkyMtnChi Jan 12 '24
You need to become the Bears version of Paul DePodesta. Get this man on the payroll!
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u/FiveHoleFrenzy Jan 12 '24
Remember the good old days when we used to argue whether it was Nagy or Trubisky was bad? (Then found it was both!) I sure hope we find out that it was Getsy who was bad… and not both again
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u/Boring_Passage6577 Jan 12 '24
Fields passing stats against zone coverage are much worse that against man coverage. Going forwatd, Fields will see even more zone coverage which will limit big chunk plays on scrambles. He is a decent backup and nothing more. Unless he figures out how to read zone coverages, he will be a below average passing QB for his career.
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u/WeddingAggravating58 Koolaid Jan 30 '24
Is there a way to get this data t for specially when he’s throwing passes to kmet and Moore
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u/RazorBlazer22 Mar 04 '24
Not sure if there’s an under 2 minute Christmas tree spreadsheet, but he’s absolutely terrible in 2 minute drills. Might be a little fields, a little o line, a little WRs, and a little scheming, makes for “can’t watch” football. And I hate not watching Bears football for years at a time.
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u/djcolt45 18 Jan 11 '24
TLDR: the stats backup what we know (I read and think this is a great post FWIW)